In this week’s column for AmWager I talk about a few angles I like and that have worked well for me.
By Jonathan Stettin
There are so many factors that go into being a successful horse player. Handicapping is obviously a significant part and of the fundamentals but there are others. Ticket structure, money management and patience and discipline all come to mind. Each of these also have many facets to them which is why this is such a tough, but potentially rewarding game to play.
The computer models of the syndicates focus on analyzing a lot of data, and coming up with horses that have what they calculate as a better chance to win then there odds will reflect. That is a good angle and a machine will almost always be able to analyze more information faster than a human. There are however angles where a human has an advantage over a computer. We can think outside the box. I have yet to see a computer capable of that.
When Code of Honor won the Fountain of Youth it rewarded me for capitalizing on an angle I have followed for years, very successfully I might add. Shug McGaughey lets his horses dictate where to run, especially at the stakes level, and backs off if they do much as get a hiccup. When he ran Code of Honor back in the Fountain of Youth off a poor three year old debut, I knew the horse would go past his two year old races. If that were the case, he’d win. Computers would not know that, nor would many bettors this he went off a generous 9-1 as he drifted up in price late.
That type of angle comes with experience. It can’t be taught. There are however some angles that can be taught. The one I will discuss here today can indeed be learned.
Horses often run in form cycles. These cycles often repeat and that results in recognizable patterns. Sheets, or more specifically Thorough-Graph, which I use, or Ragozins, which I also used for many years, make it easier to spot patterns and there is an art to reading them. If you think it is just who has the lowest number you are probably wasting your time with them.
Giant Expectations, the favorite in last Saturday’s Essex Handicap at Oaklawn was a bet against, a horse you could leave off multi-race tickets as a favorite even though the sheets, beyers, and most any other speed figure said he was one of, if not the fastest horses in the race. He was also the class of the field. This is an advantage or edge for any player but a huge one for a player going after a pick 4, or 5, of any multi-race wager.
Before I explain why let me illustrate something about athletics that will make this easier to digest, and also to recognize going forward.
Let’s say you are a runner. You can run a great 5 mile race. Now let us say you take a short or even a long break to freshen up, recover from an injury or hard race, or almost for any reason. You come back fresh and ready to go and run a strong effort. Next out will you run better with the race under your belt or will you be tired and maybe a bit stiff and sore because of it? If so then perhaps next time you won’t run as good but by your next one after that, or third since your break you will be back at full steam. If I was betting on you I would want to know that and with horses we often can.
Giant Expectations showed in his form that he almost surely would regress off his first race back from a layoff. He had just about every time previously in his past performances yet he was the favorite. This shows us a flaw in many handicappers approach, they emphasize more on the last race than overall form and patterns. Big mistake. Once you got into it you could see that Giant Expectations probably could not win if he regressed. This made him a favorite you could toss. This also meant if you were right you hand a good chance of catching a nice price in the race. Rated R Superstar won the Essex, and paid $31.20. The 50 cent pick 4 was over $1800 and the cross country pick 5 over $4800. The Oaklawn pick 5 was over 20k. Yes you had to come up with Rated R Superstar, but no, you didn’t have to use the favorite.
Some horse go forward second off the lay-off, and some go backwards. Knowing and recognizing this can be a significant edge against payers not doing their homework or over emphasizing the last race. You’ll beat them almost every time if you don’t allow yourself to fall into that trap and come prepared.
Angles, know the ones that work and pay off for you. They are out there and they are an edge.
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